Global carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion are set to reach an unprecedented peak in 2024, with the Global Carbon Project reporting an estimated 37.4 billion tonnes of fossil CO2 emissions, an increase of 0.8% from 2023. The report underlines urgent calls for reduction in emissions as the world’s annual output of CO2 from fossil fuels and land-use change collectively reaches 41.6 billion tonnes. Despite increasing efforts to reduce climate impacts, there are no clear signs of a peak in global fossil CO2 emissions, increasing the risk of exceeding a critical climate threshold.
Sector-specific emissions and regional insights
According to a report by the University of Exeter, emissions from fossil fuels including coal, oil and gas are projected to increase to 2024, accounting for 41 percent, 32 percent and 21 percent of fossil CO2 emissions respectively. Coal emissions are expected to increase by 0.2 percent, oil by 0.9 percent and natural gas by 2.4 percent. At the regional level, China, responsible for 32 percent of global emissions, is projected to see a modest increase of 0.2 percent, while emissions in the United States are expected to decline by 0.6 percent.
EU emissions are projected to decline by 3.8 percent, while India, which contributes 8 percent to global emissions, is projected to increase by 4.6 percent. Emissions from the aviation and shipping sectors are also set to increase by 7.8 percent this year, although they remain below pre-pandemic levels.
Carbon budget and climate warnings
According to Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter, who led the study, the absence of a peak in fossil CO2 emissions further reduces the remaining carbon budget needed to keep warming below the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target. At current emissions rates, there is a 50 percent chance of exceeding this limit within the next six years. Meanwhile, Professor Corinne Le Querre of the University of East Anglia acknowledged ongoing efforts in renewable energy deployment and reducing deforestation but stressed that substantial emissions reductions are still needed.
Urgency for quick action
The report emphasizes that although some nations are demonstrating progress in reducing emissions, these efforts are not enough to reverse the overall global trend. Dr. Glenn Peters of the Cicero Center for International Climate Research said global climate action remains “a collective challenge”, with gradual declines in emissions in some regions balanced by increases elsewhere.
